Indian stock markets are set to reopen on Monday, October 5, after the extended holiday weekend with investors facing a mix of positive and negative signals.

The Nifty 50 ended Thursday at 22,421.95, falling 198.50 points or 0.88%. The Sensex declined 570.59 points to 71,909.70.

Thursday’s session was particularly important because the Nifty slipped to an intraday low of 22,217.30 before recovering from the day’s worst levels.

That makes the 22,200 to 22,000 region an important support zone for the coming session.

A sustained hold above this area could encourage some short covering, while a decisive breakdown could keep the recent corrective trend intact.

The immediate hurdle for the Nifty is around 22,500 to 22,600. A move back above this zone would improve the short term setup.

The next important resistance area sits closer to 22,800, where sellers could again become active if the index stages a stronger recovery.

The latest GIFT Nifty indication was around 22,626 in evening trading, suggesting that the opening setup could be less negative than Thursday’s close indicated.

However, the GIFT Nifty level should not be treated as a guarantee of the actual market opening because global markets and overnight developments can change sentiment.

One of the biggest positive developments over the weekend is the G7 agreement to release up to 100 million barrels of oil and petroleum products from emergency reserves.

The coordinated release is being carried out through the International Energy Agency and is aimed at easing pressure from elevated fuel prices and tight supplies.

The development has helped crude prices moderate, although oil remains well above comfortable levels for an oil importing economy such as India.

For India, a sustained decline in crude prices could provide some relief to the import bill, inflation expectations and the rupee.

Oil sensitive sectors such as paints and some other input heavy businesses could also benefit if lower crude prices persist.

However, investors should not assume that a single reserve release will permanently solve the global supply problem.

Geopolitical risks, supply disruptions and the broader balance between global demand and production can continue to keep crude prices volatile.

The India US trade negotiations are another important factor for Monday’s market mood.

The talks have moved into the final stage, but recent comments from the US Trade Representative indicate that an agreement is not yet imminent and important issues remain unresolved.

Therefore, export focused sectors could respond positively to signs of progress, but investors should avoid pricing in a completed trade agreement before an official announcement.

The IT sector could remain in focus after technology stocks provided some support during Thursday’s selloff.

Infosys gained about 4.1% to ₹1,035 on Thursday, while TCS and HCL Technologies also closed higher.

The relative strength in IT is notable because the broader market remained under pressure, although one strong session does not by itself establish a lasting sector trend.

The automobile sector also needs a more nuanced reading than simply calling September sales weak.

Passenger vehicle wholesales were strong year on year, with industry data showing significant growth, although several major manufacturers recorded month on month declines.

Maruti Suzuki reported strong year on year growth, while Tata Motors’ passenger vehicle volumes declined from the year earlier period.

This mixed picture means investors will likely focus more on festive season retail demand and registrations than on wholesale numbers alone.

Foreign institutional selling remains one of the biggest risks for the market.

FIIs sold about ₹9,484 crore of Indian equities on October 1, while domestic institutional investors bought roughly ₹10,042 crore.

The domestic buying provides an important cushion, but sustained foreign selling can continue to restrict any broad based market recovery.

The rupee is another factor to watch after falling to around ₹96.32 against the US dollar on Thursday amid higher US Treasury yields and crude related pressure.

A weaker rupee can benefit some exporters, but it also increases the domestic cost of imported commodities and can add to inflationary concerns.

Domestic liquidity remains comparatively supportive, with August SIP contributions reaching a record ₹32,297 crore according to AMFI data.

Banking stocks could also attract attention after the planned three day UFBU strike was deferred following an agreement to form a high level committee with the Indian Banks’ Association.

Axis Bank is separately in focus after becoming the first Indian bank to offer Apple Pay support for its eligible Visa and Mastercard credit card customers.

Overall, Monday’s market setup is likely to remain highly sensitive to crude prices, global bond yields, foreign flows and developments around the India US trade negotiations.

For traders, 22,200 remains an important level to monitor, while a sustained move above 22,600 could improve near term sentiment.

For long term investors, the focus should remain on earnings, valuations and individual company fundamentals rather than attempting to predict a single day’s market direction.